It is debated when our proposed epoch, the Anthropocene, being the current geological age in which human activity has been the dominant influence on the climate and environment, was set into motion. Quantitative observations of trends following the agricultural or industrial revolution, can be used to determine so, as well as qualitative criterion (events), examples being the introduction of non-native materials to the environment such as radionuclides and numerous synthetic fertilisers.
The ‘frog in hot water’ analogy, is one that Andrew Fellows uses to demonstrate that, as a race, we are much better at recognising events than trends. This is implicit in Rachel Carson’s critique of the widespread use of newly developed pesticides in the U.S. (Specifically DDT), that supposedly catalysed the emergence of today’s environmental movement. However an over-reliance on events, simplified, speaks to me as an ‘act after its too late’ mentality. In one of the IGBP’s (International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme) publications, Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure (Steffan et al., 2004), “strong evidence that the rate of quantitative anthropogenic impacts has accelerated massively since the 20th Century” (Fellows, A…) is provided. By looking at the total Earth system, as opposed to isolated events, trends in human activity show how anthropogenic impacts cascade though the earth system in complex ways, creating positive feedback loops that bring us dangerously closer to irreversible tipping points; The sudden release of methane due to thawing of tundra permafrost, the reduction of Earth’s albedo (reflectivity) and resulting solar heat absorption as a consequence of large scale loss of sea ice, and the shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (global oceanic thermohaline circulation) are some examples. The qualities of these irredeemable events will be outlived by the trends that precede them, as we continue to hurtle towards a state known as ‘Hothouse Earth.” Unless we change how action is catalysed.
I started writing this blog as an exercise to help me comprehend some of the more complex theories I have come across recently in regards to systems dynamics. As I type this however, I wonder how systems thinking, popularised by Donella H. Meadows, can help us develop an ecological ethic.